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The IMDB says there are 7200 new movies now in production. There are 184 movies in 3D currently available. Some of these are quite old films like "Jaws 3D" (a truly terrible movuie). Most of the 3D catalog appears to be animated. I don't see any chick flicks listed at all (that's fine with me). 3D looks to be male or kiddie medium which is about 70% of the market.

I estimate that Hollywood will make about 15% of its feature in 3D when the technology matures. That's still a lot of movies. Figure about 100 3D movies a year worth seeing.

IMDB doesn't list porno movies and I read this week that 3D porn has begun. This may significant because porn was very important to the nascent video tape industry. It gave couples a way to see spicy material without visiting some XXX theater in a dangerous part of town. However the web now has virtually unlimited free 2D porn. It remains to be seen if porn actually helps 3D sales.

All the 3D formats seem to run up against a bandwidth limitation of around the 1080p 2D data rate of 36 Mb/sec. The 2M 1080 frame at 24 or 60 frames/sec needs compression. The third dimension means you need double the data rate so you can only get 720p with sequential, and no matter whether you split the 1080 frame horizontally, verically or into blocks you have to reduce the frame pixel count.

With the slowdown in fiber rollout it looks like US Internet streaming will be limited for the forseeable future to about 5Mbps for most people. NetFlix manages to get a sort-of 720p HD streaming with advanced compression techniques - but not 1080p. This means probably no 3D streaming for maybe 5 years.

So my guess is that DVDs will vanish as streaming takes over 2D but 3D will "save" the Blu-ray technology.